Monday, October 16, 2017

Sources

The source for all three of my posts is the following:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/09/hurricane-irma-harvey-season-climate-change-weather/

Precipitation

On average, future hurricanes will drop more precipitation on an individual basis because of the increasingly warmer air available. A current example of such phenomena is Hurricane Harvey's record-breaking precipitation levels. All scientists contacted by National Geographic agree that Harvey's increase in precipitation is directly correlated to the rising temperatures witnessed in the 21st century. Even though evaluating  the current impact that climate change has on hurricanes can be a daunting task, based on the precipitation levels witnessed from Hurricane Harvey, it is safe to assume that with a warmer climate comes a higher level of rainfall. Implementing new ways to fend off the increasing risk of flooding is pertinent to the safety of individuals living along potentially dangerous hurricane routes.

Defining Climate Change

Climate change can be defined as “any systematic change in the long-term statistics of climate elements (such as temperature, pressure, or winds) sustained over several decades or longer” (Glickman 2000, Glossary of Meteorology, 2nd edition). This change may be caused by any combination of:
  • natural influences, such as changes in the energy being emitted from the sun
  • changes in the orbit of the earth around sun
  • volcanic activity
  • fluctuations in ocean and atmospheric circulation
  • human activity (such as fossil fuels burning)
Source (http://www.hurricanescience.org/science/science/climate/)

Will the Number of Hurricanes Increase In the Future?

It is still inconclusive  whether the average number of hurricanes will increase in the coming years, however,  one can expect that the average strength of hurricanes will increase. According to National Geographic, over 70 percent of current hurricanes are category 1 and 2, but it is unknown if the storms of a similar power level will become more or less common in the years to come. Statistically speaking,  one may assume that with the increase in the probability of category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes, hurricanes with a category of 1 and 2 will become less prevalent. When evaluating the current available data, it would be a safe measure to fortify land areas that exist within the "danger" zone of high-risk hurricane routes. 

Potential Impacts of Climate Change On Hurricanes and the Future Generations

It is complicated to accurately predict, but there's some reason  to believe that climate change may potentially have an impact on the coming hurricane seasons. The sweeping U.S. Climate Science Special Report says that detecting the impact that climate change can potentially have on hurricanes is  a challenging task. They explain that hurricanes are random events, making it difficult for scientists to precisely gather data to determine a trend. However, scientists can conclude that in the incoming decades, the average hurricane strength will intensify. Additionally, it is safe to assume that the frequency of category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes will become the norm. Perhaps one can assume that the growing probability of category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes will spawn a new breed of powerful hurricane in the decades to come.